Lessons for Bharat from the Venezuelan & Iranian Episodes

 Written by: Harsh Thakur

Reading Time: 15 Minutes

Originally Published: Satyartha May'26

“It takes a wise man to learn from his mistakes and an even wiser man to learn from others.” - Zen Proverb

Introduction

Five months ago, the United States intervened in Venezuela under the umbrella of ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’, an Operation that saw the American forces pick up the Venezuelan President and his wife at night from the President’s residence without incurring a single casualty. This episode, when narrated without context, seems to be from a fictional movie plot or some fictional roleplay storyline. However, the 2026 Iranian War is less dramatic, but it offers lessons for all the parties involved. Further, the lessons from both the Iranian & Venezuelan episodes hold equally true and applicable for India. These episodes also lay to rest a few debates within the Indian strategic community. 

This piece shall, through both the episodes and other historical illustrations, lay forth the lessons that India must learn.

Lesson 1: Hard Power is Paramount!

“Cultural assertion generates material success; hard power generates soft power.” - Samuel P. Huntington

The notion that Hard Power is in decline, or that it has lost its relevance due to Globalisation and hence, India ought to invest more in Soft Power, has been instantly dismantled by both episodes. It's clear that there is no substitute for Hard Power. Soft power could buy a country tourism and cosmopolitan cultural popularity; however, it can never ever guarantee the sovereignty of a nation-state. 

Nevertheless, buzzwords, technology and market trends bring forth a sort of amnesia in the minds of people, and experts aren't immune to it either. One such amnesiac argument is that India should invest more in UAVs and satellites, not tanks and fighters, because “fighter planes are flying ducks, and horribly expensive” and “stealth fighters have no place in future warfare”. This is what KJ Alphons, a former Union Minister, argued for in his column.(1) He also stated that “aircraft carriers are sitting ducks for UAVs… They are good for national pride and not much else — don’t build more”, and that “tanks are expensive. They can be immobilised with drones, and there are a variety of shells that can destroy any battle tank. They can easily be replaced with more effective and less expensive equipment — don’t waste money on them.” Such arguments precisely highlight the amnesia that this piece highlighted before. Indubitably, technology is something that has to be invested in and embraced, but not at the cost of depriving a country of its conventional military capacities. A rival country would opt to use technological superiority against the home country, because of a larger balance of power logic, and parity in the prowess of conventional weapons. Otherwise, when attacking a state devoid of conventional prowess, the attacking methodology would indeed be conventional and not some high-tech drone approach; it could be a concoction of both, depending on the circumstances. AI, UAVs, Drones and Cyber weaponry are force multipliers but in no way substitute the deterrence offered by conventional weapons. Hence, India must invest in technology, but simultaneously continue bolstering its conventional capabilities because Hard Power is nowhere to go.

Lesson 2: Always an Insider!

"Each betrayal begins with trust." - Martin Luther

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in a 2024 interview with CNN Turk, said, “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”(2) The veracity of his claim is immaterial to the fact that the Mossad is seriously embedded within the Iranian State apparatus. Similarly, in the case of Venezuela, in its 2019 uprising during “Operation Freedom”, it was Manuel Cristopher Figuera, the head of the SEBIN, the country’s internal intelligence agency, and General Francisco Yanez, the Air Force's head of strategic planning, who turned against Maduro’s Government. 

Besides the history, in the recent episodes, in Iran, a regime change hasn’t happened because of a paucity of significant defections. Donald Trump(3) and Netanyahu(4)(5) have both repeatedly asked the operatives of the IRGC to lay down their arms and called for their people to revolt. In the absence of the former, the latter seems distant. Akin to this, in Venezuela, the Cuban personnel were responsible for protecting the President from way back in 2002, from the time of Hugo Chávez. This was out of necessity that Chávez deemed right to make Venezuela “coup-proof” following the 2002 American-supported(6) Coup attempt led by General Efraín Vásquez Velasco and Rear Admiral Carlos Molina Tamayo, both of whom were insiders of the regime. In the 2026 episode, the regime insiders who allegedly colluded with the US include the current Acting President, Delcy Rodríguez,(7) and General Javier Marcano Tábata.(8) Tábata is allegedly the one responsible for deactivating air defence protocols and providing information to the Americans regarding the Venezuelan president's location. It would certainly take some time for the truth to emerge; nevertheless, the New York Times reported that a Venezuelan source handed over the information on Maduro’s location to the US.(9) Whether it is General Tábata or not is difficult to estimate; however, aside from speculation, there is a fact that the Venezuelan Air Defence System failed, whether this is because of an inside job, ‘American Systematic Dominance’, or a combination of both, is difficult to prove assertively; however, the role of Delcy Rodríguez in colluding with the US against Maduro, is lucid. 

Lastly, the Americans, out of desperation, have also attempted to instigate(10) the Iranian Kurds to rise in arms against the government, besides Reza Pahlavi calling for a revolution. What India must learn from this is that focusing on National Security threats is imperative. Actors who are inimical to the sovereignty of India must be dealt with swiftly without hesitation, let alone be allowed to become insiders of the government. While groups and individuals with genuine grievances must have the full support of the government to have those grievances taken care of, terrorists such as Yasin Malik, whose objective is to undermine the very sovereignty of India, kill innocent civilians and find a convenient cover of ‘grievances’ should have no public space, let alone be allowed to click a picture with the Prime Minister. Indeed, terrorism, irrespective of its form, must be ruthlessly stamped out. This includes the propagandists and sympathisers of terrorism across the spectrum, such as White Collar Terrorists, Urban sympathisers of the Naxalite Terrorism, and Academic-White Collar sympathisers of Naxalite and Islamist Terrorism. The sympathisers and apologists of terrorism must be comprehensively rehabilitated and reeducated.  

An individual has no right to any of their liberties, the moment they opt to challenge the very sovereignty of the state that has granted them those liberties. Furthermore, individuals who proselytise innocent civilians to violence through the Pakistani, ISIS or Naxalite modules of brainwashing, especially in universities and campuses, should not find a convenient cover in soft labels such as “separatists” or “activists” to garner sympathy; such armed megalomaniacs must be labelled as “terrorists” with no ifs and buts. A zero-tolerance approach against terrorism is a must. Insiders sympathetic to terrorism or foreign influence to undermine the Indian Democracy must be purged without a second thought. And most importantly, an individual's intent and methods, rather than their claimed political or social identity, must determine their label. In this context, the PRAHAAR doctrine is a step in the right direction.

Lesson 3: You Can't Escape Geography

“Realism is about the recognition of the most blunt, uncomfortable, and deterministic truths: those of geography.” - Robert Kaplan

Often, given the amnesia that this piece spoke of before, some experts tend to forget the primacy of Geography. They get caught up in normative idealism that is devoid of raw realities. Geopolitics starts with geography and ends with geography. Tim Marshall, in his work, Prisoners of Geography, wrote, “Technology may seem to overcome the distances between us in both mental and physical space, but it is easy to forget that the land where we live, work and raise our children is hugely important, and that the choices of those who lead the seven billion inhabitants of this planet will to some degree always be shaped by the rivers, mountains, deserts, lakes and seas that constrain us all – as they always have.” 

In the case of Venezuela, it was the proximity to the US and the distance from China, Russia and Iran that the Americans, as a regional hegemon, were able to effectively assert themselves. One may juxtapose the American success in Iraq against the prolonged attrition in Iran to state that geography didn’t constrain the US in Iraq; however, there is a caveat here. Firstly, indeed, the US is far away from both Iran and Iraq; however, in Iraq, the terrain is primarily composed of flat alluvial plains and deserts, which allowed for the rapid movement of U.S. armoured divisions. Whereas Iran is four times larger than Iraq, and the Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, with peaks exceeding 4,000 meters, act as a "natural wall" against ground invasions. Furthermore, Iran’s high central plateau and vast salt deserts create a logistical nightmare, swallowing supply lines and forcing invaders into narrow, easily defended mountain passes. Secondly, the U.S. was backed by 35 countries that was called the “Coalition of the Willing”, and utilised Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as a staging ground for the ground operations in Iraq, whereas in Iran, there isn’t a coalition other than the US and Israel, with limited defensive support from Germany, France and Britain, while Canada and Spain refused to join the conflict and there doesn’t appear any coalition that is militarily willing to open the strait of Hormuz. Thirdly, no country bordering Iran is willing to host a large-scale U.S. ground invasion force, essentially meaning that any ground assault would likely have to come from the sea, which is much more difficult to sustain. And fourthly, the US isn’t a regional hegemon in West Asia. 

The lesson for India is that whatever the outcomes may be in the Subcontinent, it is the hegemon of the region. And this has been clearly demonstrated in the case of the Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, among others. There can be no KP Sharma Oli, M. Yunus, or M. Muizzu that can, in the long term, undermine the interests of India. In the short term, there could be fissures, cleavages and breakdowns, at times even embargos, but in the long term, they all have to engage with India. This is the primacy of geography. The argument that China does offer an alternative geographically is true, but China hasn’t been able to substantiate it in practical terms, often leading countries such as Sri Lanka to debt distress. Oli, Yunus and Muizzu have all tried to find their alternative in China and have failed thus far. India has offered a stable partnership to its neighbourhood, which China hasn’t been able to do. Minor changes in the short term do little to alter the long-term trajectory. The paranoia that media houses try to inflict upon the minds of their subscribers through their clickbait holds little substance in the long term. Hence, India is the house, and the house always wins.

Lesson 4: Diversify and Take Responsibility

“Diversification is the only Free lunch in investing.” - Harry Markowitz

The Iranian episode has starkly highlighted the need for the world to diversify. Dependence of all forms must be diversified, whether energy, economic, military or otherwise. The failure of American Air Defence systems in the region has again highlighted the overreliance of the Gulf on the US. The Gulf, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia have no prerogative to pass the buck of their own security to the Americans and plan geopolitical moves against each other to establish a regional hegemony. The Gulf needs to undertake a serious rethink of (1) American bases in the region and whether they are an asset or a liability moving forward; (2) whether they should invest in their own security systems and military capacities or continue to rely on a third country. 

The notion that economic prosperity holds primacy over sovereignty in a “globalised world” is a grossly simplified utopian misconception. Sovereignty comes first; economic growth comes later because sovereignty once lost never returns. Similarly, with regard to energy, diversification is a must to build resilience. Countries heavily relying upon the West Asian Oil are paying heavily for this overreliance through exponential price hikes. In this context, India has fared well on the energy and economic frontiers; however, with regard to taking responsibility for its defence, there is much pondering to be done. After the Second World War, India showed determination and guts by hiring the German Designer Kurt Tank to design India’s and Asia’s first indigenously developed and manufactured jet fighter-bomber called Marut. While variations of Marut were developed, no new, fully indigenous fighter aircraft entered operational service. What instead became the new norm was to import or license-produce Russian and European aircraft such as MiGs, Jaguar and Mirage-2000. Only in 1983 was it realised that India needed an indigenous aircraft when the LCA Program was sanctioned. It took 2001, that is 18 years, for the development of the prototype of Tejas and 2016, that is an additional 15 years, for its induction to happen. Similarly, the AMCA is a step in the right direction. It was planned to be in service by 2035;(11) however, delays in development and procurement had pushed the induction to 2040.(12) A change in that approach is palpable when the Government opened bids for AMCA, where a consortium of TATA, L&T, and Bharat Forge has secured bids for developing the same by 2035. This approach of prioritising results over government firms or government control is the only way out for India from its bureaucratic delays in procurement.

Furthermore, both the Venezuelan and Iranian episodes clearly indicate that Nuclear Deterrence is the best deterrent. If Ukraine, Venezuela or Iran had nuclear weapons, then they wouldn’t have been subject to the kind of direct all-out military strikes that they are currently subject to. However, certain political parties and a batch of  “experts” and “intellectuals” who have been amnesic to the geopolitical realities continue to advocate for a “complete elimination of nuclear weapons” in India. Such amnesic groups and individuals ought to advocate for a global nuclear disarmament rather than a national nuclear disarmament. The question should not be whether India should possess nuclear weapons or not, when the rest of the world does possess them. Rather, the question should be whether India should revise its No-First Use Doctrine or not, as other countries such as China and the US opt to increase their nuclear arsenal. The conversation for Nuclear Disarmament should be global, not national.

Lesson 5: The Imperative of Building & Selling Narratives

“Narrative is one of the best intoxicants or tranquilizers.” - S. Byatt

The American narrative of “narco-terrorism” against Maduro found fewer buyers in the US. Instead of it being framed as the American narrative, it became “Trump’s narrative”. Similarly, the American narrative of a threat from Iran because of Iran’s nuclear weapons found fewer buyers globally. That wasn’t quite the case following 9/11, when “Iraq has WMDs” or “Panama’s Noriega is a Drug Trafficker” became widely accepted narratives. While the former turned out to be untrue, the latter happened to be true. However, whether either warranted an American Invasion is a question to ponder upon. Similarly, the narrative against Bashar al-Assad was that “he used Sarin Gas against his own people”, which worked; again, the veracity is a different matter, the point is not to prove someone innocent or guilty, but to highlight how narratives are framed and how imagery is built. Al-Jolani of Syria was framed as some sort of democratic messiah of Syria by the BBC, AL Jazeera, and the CNN news cabal. He was framed as a democratic, secular and moderate, and an entire image-maker-over was undertaken by this cabal through anecdotes of him allowing Christian Churches in Idlib, or ‘attending graduation ceremonies’ or ‘building institutional governance’ in Idlib or ‘arresting hardliners’ and trying to win public support. (13)(14)(15) Furthermore, these outlets provided him with a platform for interviews to frame him as a ‘pragmatic’. However, over a year of his regime has proved things differently. The Alwaites have been massacred to death,(16) the Kurds have been arm-twisted and strong-armed to follow Jolani’s lead,(17)(18) whereas the Syrian Druze were massacred in April 2025.(19)

Nevertheless, the “Iranians want Freedom” narrative has found many buyers because of an ecosystem that built narratives and an ecosystem that sold narratives. India has struggled to sell narratives and, at times, even in building narratives. An anecdote of the same can be found in Operation Sindoor, where “stoppage of fire” was a solid narrative formulation; however, India’s very own media houses called it a “ceasefire”. Furthermore, the credibility of every mainstream Indian outlet was brought into question during the episode, given the kind of exaggerated, inaccurate claims the outlets went on to make. That is when the PIB was brought in to fact-check information; however, this is a makeshift measure. Information has to flow from the top echelons of the government to the very last mile. Pakistan’s claims of shooting down Indian jets found credibility because the Indian side either consciously ignored it or failed in strategic communication when it was most needed. 

A similar situation happened with the Government’s condolence message for Ayatollah Khomenei; a condolence wasn’t mentioned in the official statement, a radio silence followed for a couple of days, along with a tremendous backlash from retired diplomats and the public, following which Vikram Misri signed the condolence book at the Iranian embassy. It was yet another case of poor communication from the side of the Indian Government, akin to the narratives that swirled around against the Government when the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, which participated in a joint exercise, was sunk. It took another day or two for the information to arrive that the Government provided docking to IRIS Lavan and accommodation to its crew. This sort of poor, makeshift messaging has cost India for decades. Unarguably, the only sector in which Pakistan has consistently performed better than India in every confrontation has been building and selling narratives. Hence, it is high time that India builds its own robust ecosystem for building and selling narratives.

Conclusion

“Knowing is not enough! You must take action.” - Tony Robbins

India has to act on these lessons; there aren’t any new lessons. However, they, through an anecdotal case study of these episodes, put to rest some of the most futile and frivolous arguments, such as India giving up its Nuclear Weapons Program while other countries shall continue to stay armed with Nuclear weapons or that India shouldn’t invest in its conventional weapons and instead invest heavily in new technological weapons. Aside of he ressuring Geographical Primacy, and a continuity in diversification and indigenisation, what India has to focus on is tackling the threat posed by rogue insiders and more so the perils of allowing rogue actors, in the name of reconciliation, to become insiders. 

And lastly but most importantly, India needs to have its own setup for building and selling narratives. This isn’t to say that the freedom of the media has to be curbed, but rather to bring about credibility to the Press. Carl Bernstein, a former Washington Post journalist, published a story in 1977. He claimed that there were at least 400 American journalists who had secretly carried out assignments for the CIA(20) with the approval of their own senior management. The most valuable associations for the intelligence body were with the New York Times, Columbia Broadcasting Service (CBS), and Time Inc. Bernstein also revealed that Time Inc. founder, Henry Luce, and CBS chairman, William Paley, were among those who were helping the CIA. In fact, Journalists were or perhaps still are regularly invited to the CIA’s headquarters in Langley for briefings. Disclosures under FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) revealed CIA's email exchanges for narrative assistance with the Associated Press, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal and others.(21) Some of the prominent invitees were David Ignatius from the Washington Post, and ‘the former ombudsmen’ for the New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), and Washington Post and Fox News’ Bret Baier, Juan Williams and Catherine Herridge’.Of those who exchanged emails with the CIA’s press office for article corrections & narrative corrections were Ken Dilanian of the Los Angeles Times, Matt Apuzzo, then at Associated Press; Brian Bennet of the LA Times; Siobhan Gorman of the Wall Street Journal; Scott Shane of the New York Times.

There is no reason to assume that this no longer exists. On the other hand, there is every reason for the US to have strengthened and expanded these exchanges to higher levels. It is imperative that India builds up its own ecosystem that suits its requirements sooner rather than later. Time is of the essence, and hence on this front, India must get its act together before it is too late.

Citations:

1. KJ Alphons, “India should focus on UAVs, satellites — not fighters and tanks”, Indian Express, 12th July 2025.
2. “Head of Iranian unit countering Mossad was Israeli agent, says ex-president Ahmadinejad”, Times of Israel, 1st October 2024.
3. “Trump Calls On Iran Forces To Lay Down Arms, Civilians To Revolt”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 6th March 2026
4. Lazar Berman, “Netanyahu to Iranian people: ‘The moment of truth is close. We are trying to free Iran. Ultimately, it depends on you’”, Times of Israel, 7th March 2026
5. “WATCH: 'Stand up and let your voices be heard': Netanyahu urges Iranians to stand against regime”, Jerusalem Post, 14th June 2025
6. Ed Vulliamy, “Venezuela coup linked to Bush team”, The Guardian, 21st April 2002
7. Aram Roston, “Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez assured US of cooperation before Maduro’s capture”, The Guardian, 22nd January 2026.
8. “Shock in Venezuela: General Tabata betrayed Maduro to the US – The dirty role of Rodriguez and the Qatar bargain”, Banking News, 9th January 2026.
9. Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt, “C.I.A. Source Inside Venezuelan Government Helped Track Maduro”, The New York Times, 3rd January 2026.
   
10. Natasha Bertrand, Alayna Treene, Zachary Cohen, Clarissa Ward and Vasco Cotovio, “CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say”, CNN, 4th March 2026.
11. “India’s plan for advanced fighters: LCA Mark2 by 2029, AMCA by 2035”, Economic Times, 11th August 2024.
12. Commander Sandeep Dhawan, “India’s Fighter Jet Crisis — What Is the Solution”, 10 December 2025.
13. Mina Al-Lami, "Syria's rebel leaders say they've broken with their jihadist past - can they be trusted?", BBC, 20th December 2024
14. "Who is Abu Mohammed al-Julani, leader of HTS in Syria?", Al Jazeera, 4th December 2024
    
15. "Syrian rebel leader speaks to CNN in exclusive interview", CNN, 6th December 2024
16. Maggie Michael, “Syrian forces massacred 1,500 Alawites. The chain of command led to Damascus”, Reuters, 30th June 2025.
17. Aras Yussef & Meghan Bodette, “Attacks on the Kurds of Aleppo Threaten Syria’s Transition”, Kurdish Peace Institute, January 6, 2026
18. Pinar Tank, “The repercussions of the Syrian government offensive against the Kurds,” PRIO, 26th January 2026.
19. “Syria monitor says more than 100 people killed in two days of sectarian violence”, France 24, 5th January 2025
20. “C.I.A. Established Many Links To Journalists in U.S. and Abroad”, The New York Times, 27th December 1977
21. Ken Silverstein, “The CIA’s Mop-Up Man: L.A. Times Reporter Cleared Stories With Agency Before Publication”, The Intercept, 4th September 2014.