The Maharashtrian Dilemma: A Sabha without a Vidhan
Written by: Harsh Thakur & Yash Swar
8 Minutes Read
Introduction
As the world glues its eyes to an arguably era-defining election taking place in the United States, Maharashtrians are immersed in their own election cycle. Notwithstanding the chaos in the state's political sphere in the last few years, voters are still quite upbeat and optimistic about the polls. Historically dominated by the Congress and its allies, the state has seen a marked shift towards the NDA in the last decade. Notorious for the fickle nature of its power, the state has only seen 2 chief ministers completing their full terms in office.Over the last 5 years, Maharashtra’s political power has oscillated between the ruling Maha Yuti (NDA) coalition, consisting of the Shiv Sena (SS), BJP and the NCP and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (INDIA) coalition consisting of the INC, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP(SP). Till 2019, the state had 4 major parties BJP, SS, NCP and the INC.
After the elections, the Shiv Sena formed a government with the opposition alliance by cutting ties with the BJP. Shiv Sena’s then-party president Uddhav Thackeray became the state's chief minister. However, in June 2022, a rebellion led by Eknath Shinde and 40 MLAs led to the Chief Minister’s resignation. The Shinde Faction formed a government with the BJP, claiming the party name and symbol. This led to the other faction being named the SSUBT with the Shinde faction awarded the name and the symbol of the party by the Election Commission and recognised as such by then speaker of the Legislative assembly Rahul Narwekar. In 2023, a similar course of events led to Ajit Pawar joining the govt too with nearly 40 MLAs after claiming to be the ‘real’ NCP. In this case as well, the Election Commission awarded the name and symbol to the rebel faction. The remainder of the party was named the NCP (SP). The government now has 2 deputy chief ministers: Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP and Ajit Pawar of the NCP with Mr. Shinde as the Chief Minister.
Lok Sabha Elections & Ladki Bahin-Bhau Combo
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra were perhaps the game changer. The state went under the process of voting for the first time after the splits. What happened thereafter was very intriguing. The INDIA coalition won 30 of the 48 seats whereas NDA won 17 of the 48 seats. The Shiv Sena won 7 of the 15 seats it contested while the SS (UBT) won 9 of the 21 seats it contested, the NCP won 1 of the 4 seats it contested while the NCP (SP) won 8 of the 10 seats it contested. The BJP lost 14 seats as it won only 9 of the 28 seats it contested while the Congress gained 12 seats by winning 13 seats from the 17 seats it contested. Although one may paint this as a lucid defeat of the NDA, that isn't quite the case. The numbers are deceptive at times because the vote share of the INDIA Coalition stood at 43.71% while that of the NDA stood at 43.55%. It would be fatuous to claim that the mood in Maharashtra swung towards the NDA or the INDIA Coalition, for the reality unfolds in these upcoming Vidhan Sabha elections. And it would be erroneous if not a blunder to claim that the mood on the ground in Maharashtra remains steady like the Lok Sabha Elections.
In the Lok Sabha elections, Muslim voter consolidation emerged as a nationwide trend- Maharashtra was no exception. This phenomenon, dubbed “vote jihad” by Devendra Fadnavis, implies aggressive and manipulative mobilization of Muslim voters. Although the MVA has fielded only 8 Muslim Candidates this election, Muslim voter consolidation is likely to happen wherein parties such as AIMIM, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), and Samajwadi Party are likely to emerge as alternatives to the INC-NCP (SP) juggernaut. However, the role of Ajit Pawar’s NCP in attracting Muslim voters would be keenly observed.
Akin to the Muslim Vote share, eyes would be drawn to the Dalit & SC vote share which has since the “Save the Constitution” pitch further drifted towards the MVA. The entire Ambedkarite movement has thrown its weight behind the MVA, not even Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr. Ambedkar, gained from this drift as one would’ve expected. The SC vote share since 2014 has shifted away from the BJP. This, nonetheless, has contributed to the Mahayuti Government unveiling the “Ladki Bahin Yojana” & the “Ladka Bhau Yojana.” The former is offering an eligible woman 1,500 Rupees per month directly into their accounts while the latter has offered an eligible unemployed youth a sum of 10,000 Rupees per month while those passing the 12th examinations are offered a monthly stipend of 6,000 Rupees. Although these schemes are considered fiscally imprudent by few, Ajit Pawar, the leader of NCP & the Finance Minister in the Govt along with a set of experts have argued that the fiscal health of the state won’t be affected since for the last few years, the state hasn’t witnessed such schemes.
Furthermore, along with these schemes, the Mahayuti Government has commenced outreach programs to those Dalit communities outside the Ambedkarite Movement such as Matangs who’ve historically been its vote bank as a result of which the BJP along with the undivided SS won 46 of the 88 Seats with significant Dalits population in the Assembly in 2019 where the INC-Undivided NCP managed 33 seats. The NDA is likely expected to utilize the Supreme Court’s SC Subclassification Verdict in its favour here for the 29 SC Seats are hanging in the balance. Even though the majority of the 40% Mahars in the Dalits have historically voted against the BJP, the populistic welfare schemes have made headwinds against this voting pattern.
The OBC-Maratha Divide & Narratives
The rise of Manoj Jarange Patil, an activist who championed the cause of reservations & affirmative action for Marathas in educational institutions & jobs, in 2023 changed the dynamics of state politics for the foreseeable future. Although Maratha Kranti Morcha pushed for Maratha Reservation demand way back in 2016, Jarange became the face of this movement in 2023. His continuous criticism of Devendra Fadnavis calling him a “hurdle” to Maratha Reservations was likely to alienate the Maratha Pro-Reservation lobby from supporting the NDA, if not voting for it. Subsequently before the 2024 General elections, in February, Eknath Shinde on the Vidhan Sabha speaker’s recommendation decided to order a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to Probe into the allegations levied by a BJP MLA Pravin Darekar that Jarange Patil was connected with Sharad Pawar through a conspiracy hatched at the factory of the Congress MLA Rajesh Tope where NCP MLA Rohit Pawar, the grandnephew of Sharad Pawar, was also present. The theory caused a ruckus in the House & Raj Thackeray, the Supremo of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) further supported the theory of Sharad Pawar funding Jarange Patil.
This game of confrontational narrative, irrespective of the truthfulness of the allegations, was an attempt to discredit Jarange Patil as an independent voice of the Maratha Movement for he had intentionally or otherwise, caused a major OBC-Maratha Polarization leading to a decline in the NDA’s Vote Share & Seatshare in the Vidharbha & Marathwada Regions. Regardless of this, the Konkan Belt & the Thane District have been swept by the NDA during the Lok Sabha Elections.
To push their narratives, both sides have directly or indirectly even supported movies such as Dharmaveer 2 & Sangharsh Yoddha Manoj Jarange Patil. The former is based on the life of Anand Dighe, the ‘guru’ of Eknath Shinde. The movie goes to the lengths to justify the Eknath Shinde faction’s split while the latter depicts how Jarange Patil fought for the reservations of the Marathas further pushing the OBC-Maratha split.
The other narrative or trend that has emerged is the validation of populist schemes. If the Ladki Bahin & Ladka Bhau Yojana are populist then the discourse led by the opposition against the government hasn’t been about questioning the fiscal prudence of these schemes but rather arguing for increasing the benefits offered. The MVA’s Manifesto speaks about introducing a “Mahalaxmi Yojana” under which similar to the Ladki Bahin Yojana, women would hereon be handed over 3000 Rupees on a monthly basis with free bus services for women. A counter to the Ladka Bhau Yojana emerges with another scheme offering 4,000 Rupees per month to unemployed youth.
The promises of populism continue to drive the discourse against fiscal prudence for now. Sanjay Raut's monetary benefit & durational challenges to the NDA Government on these schemes just supplements this argument for he has further pushed the narrative that these schemes should last even after the elections & the amount offered by the scheme should be further increased. How much of this was a quintessential Sanjay Raut paying lip service to gross fiscal management, only time shall tell.
Conclusion
With Jarange pulling out of the race vis-a-vis contesting the Vidhan Sabha elections, a couple of days back, the lingering question of whether it was a major relief for the NDA or has his withdrawal enabled a Maratha vote consolidation for the opposition is a matter only time will tell. Jarange Patil has asked candidates he supported until he pulled out, to step down, how many have, is a question for another day. And even though Patil has refused to endorse any candidate or a party, the implications of this remain to be seen. Nonetheless, the BJP’s victory in Haryana did alter the narrative regarding the Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra in favour of the BJP giving it a fighting chance in the state. The RSS resuming groundwork for the BJP uniting people under the umbrella of being a Hindu would also play out in the state in NDA’s favour.It’s too early to decide which one is the real Sena or the real NCP, for the election is not about any ideology but about survival. For Shinde & Uddhav Thackeray, it’s about claiming the Sena. If the contest amongst them isn’t cut-throat already then rest assured that the loser is bound to fade in the hollows of time. For Sharad Pawar, it's about the survival of what he built; with what legacy shall he depart, the hope for a passing of the torch moment with Supriya Sule, his daughter. For Ajit Pawar, this is his potentially last opportunity to stay politically relevant. His party's poor outing in the Lok Sabha elections wasn't taken kindly by the members of his coalition.
The State of Maharashtra has already transcended the ‘limitations’ of ideology. SS (UBT) which lays claim to the symbols of the Undivided Sena is pampering the INC & NCP (SP)’s Muslim Vote base, the same community whose disenfranchisement was once advocated for by the Undivided Sena. Furthermore, Uddhav Thackeray continues to share the stage & limelight with Sharad Pawar whom his father, Balasaheb Thackeray referred to as a “scoundrel”. The NDA on the other hand continues to support Ajit Pawar’s faction in the hopes of a political vote split of the undivided NCP voter base. Ajit Pawar happens to be the same politician whom the BJP accused once of being the perpetrator in the irrigation scam.
With ideological lines fading, the mission to stay politically relevant & to survive is set in motion. The Rebels have already muddied the field across party lines as the candidate list stands finalized. Has this disturbed a well-planned game or aided some coalition's strategy? Only time shall tell for the game isn’t over but the endgame has begun.
