Britain: A Fading Polity
Britain: A Fading Polity
The British Strength in Global Affairs is withering, but this waning power is presenting an opportunity to India which we're encashing on. We'll also take a look at the reasons as to why the North Block has made a resolute to be a part of the 'British Commonwealth'.
Introduction
Britain has produced 4 Prime Prime Ministers in 6 years. From the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum to the current times, one thing is very much clear the Empire's gone & the Kingdom may be the very next thing to enter the history books with the word 'was'. There are now new fault lines in Britain underlined by the Leicester Clashes and from the looks of the situation, it is clear that these fault lines will widen more in the coming times. October 2022 is a crucial juncture in the navigation of Britain's road ahead.
In this piece, we examine how the decline of the Kingdom is happening & what opportunities has it presented to India. We'll also take a look at the reasons as to why the North Block has made a resolute to be a part of the 'British Commonwealth'.
Brexit: A Rabbit Hole
Brexit Referendum is where it actually began in a very significant way. The Brexit had geopolitical as well as economic consequences for the Brits. Let's start with the economic consequences. There was an immediate economic consequence & a long-term economic consequence. The short-term consequence was a decline in the British National Income & it costed around 340 million pounds.[1] The long-term economic repercussions were calculated that Brexit would cost 4% of GDP per annum over the long term & the cost of living could be rising at its fastest rate for the next 30 years as per the Office for Budget Responsibility.[2][3] The UK Cost of Living Crisis is just another mere evidence of the repercussions incurred due to Brexit.
The Geopolitical Consequences on the other hand are more implicit. Scotland and Northern Ireland both had voted for remaining in the European Union. The 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum though wasn't successful but as per the Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) & British Social Attitudes (BSA) Report, the debate has got more polarized. 82% of supporters of the Scottish National Party (SNP) as per the survey are lobbying for Independence.[4][5] Nicola Sturgeon, the undeterred leader of the SNP even announced that 19th October 2023 would be the date for the next Scottish Referendum. However, the former Prime Minister, who was then in office Mr Boris Johnson not approving the transfer of special powers has resulted in a case in the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom whose next hearing is on the 11th of October.[6]
The Welsh have formulated the 'Independent Constitution Commission' which shall be examining Wales' future relationship with the rest of the UK and will be considering Welsh independence as well.[7] Adam Price, the leader of Plaid Cymru, a Welsh Political Party even went on to say, "If the Supreme Court decides in favour (of Scottish Referendum then), we in Wales will have a route to go directly to the people of Wales in order to have a mandate for securing our own right to self-determination as a nation."[8]
Indian Asset: The Indian Diaspora
One of the most important reasons why India is still a part of the Commonwealth is the amount India can influence British Polity through mere membership. All Citizens of the Commonwealth who reside in Britain have voting rights in all the British elections.[9] The 1.5 Million Indian Diaspora in the UK also has voting rights. This brings us to the Leicester Clashes. The clashes just highlight the emergence of a new fault line in the UK. The clashes involved the Indian & Pakistani Diaspora.
The Pakistani Nationals are mainly from Mirpur in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir who came to England to seek refuge from distress but struggled with inclusion in Britain. Witnessing Islamophobia these nationals found solace in Islamic Orthodoxy. The Community initially politically mobilised for welfare & to influence on the Kashmir Dispute, increasingly became a supporter of the Labour Party when Britain was involved in the so-called 'War on Terror' considering the Tory's Conservative outlook. One of the reasons for aligning with the Labours was the Islamophobic sentiment which was on the rise, meanwhile, then the Indian Diaspora was entrenching into the British Civic Life. The Indian Diaspora was electorally weaponised in 2019 when the after-effects of the Brexit were apparent, Modi had a landslide victory & Britain was at odds with both Brussels & Beijing. Jeremy Corbyn, a former head of the British Labour Party, to woo the British Pakistani community said, "The situation in Kashmir is deeply disturbing. Human rights abuses taking place are unacceptable. The rights of the Kashmiri people must be respected and UN resolutions implemented."[10] This is when the English Conservative-Indian alliance actually kicked in & the British Indian Community voted Boris Johnson into power. Hence, the Indian Diaspora in Britain is one of the biggest assets of India.
Navigating in the Current Times
Britain is stuck in times where the sense of being a global power with a grand history is untethered by the realities of its shrinking capabilities & self-inflicted harm. Fuelled by the crisis caused by the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009 followed by some rise in English Nationalist Confidence due to the 2014 Scottish Referendum to the self-imposed disaster of Brexit has only led Britain downhill. The United Kingdom is the only nation from the G7 Grouping to have a smaller economy than the pre-covid times. [11] The UK has been facing a stagnation of economy for the last 15 years with all governments trying their best to stimulate the economy to grow, but the new 'mini-budget' from the Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng is like a quintessential failed Eureka moment. The 'Mini-Budget' presented last month is similar to the 1972's 'dash for growth budget' which led to the 1976 Sterling Crisis.
The amount of backlash Liz Truss has received so far makes it clear that Britain can very well have another Prime Minister before the next General Election. Rishi Sunak in the same regard is still in the race. His rise as a Prime Ministerial Contender underscores the fact of how close the Right of the Indian Diaspora came close to relish its goal. Sunak still is in the game due to the ascendancy of China as a primary strategic threat. The Whitehall has gone into a 'Please India' mode with the Signing of a Major Defence Deal in April this year followed by the negotiation of FTA talks & increasing student numbers from India. The British High Commissioner to India in an interview this week with the Indian express even stated that "I keep saying it is Indo-Pac with a ‘c’ and not Indo-Pak with a ‘k’."[12] This highlights the Paradigm shift in the British Foreign Policy from Afghanistan to the Indo-Pacific.
Conclusion
The Developments in Britain are the ones to be watched carefully. Britain's glory as an Empire rested for good in 1997 & the Kingdom's unity now is a prospect of a debate. The possibility of a trade war between the UK & the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol also lurks on the sidelines as well. The current times are quite sensitive for Britain as they'll be deciding Britain's national interests. The South Asian Diaspora has a very crucial role in influencing the British Polity's future. The Indian Diaspora is nothing more than an asset for India's Strategic Interest which is electorally quite mobilised & hence any calls to quit the Commonwealth won't be taken seriously by the North Block due to the Foreign Policy of 'Multi-Aligned-Non Alignment'. The Dissolution of the Kingdom can be a significant global development, but for now, the possibility can be considered remote until either the British Judiciary or the Ruling Dispensation approves any such effort. For now, all that is in India's Interest is to bear the fruits of the British Indo-Pacific Strategies. The New fault lines in the UK are just an aftermath of the current geopolitics movements. The harmonious relations of British South Asians can be just a relic of the past.
Citations
2] Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid', BBC, 27th October 2021
3] Josh Martin, Living costs rising at their fastest rate for 30 years, BBC, 16th February 2022
4] British Social Survey Attitudes 39, 2022
5] John Curtice, Independence debate becoming more polarised, BBC, 22nd September, 2022
6] Supreme Court date for indyref2 case set for 11 October, BBC, 21st July, 2022
7] Welsh independence to be considered by commission, BBC, 19th October 2021
8] Scottish indyref push could lead to Welsh vote, says Plaid's Adam Price, BBC, 29th June 2022
9] Neil Johnston, Who can vote in UK elections?, House of Commons Library, 23rd September 2022
10] Kallol Bhattacherjee, Implement UN resolutions in Kashmir, says Jeremy Corbyn, The Hindu, 11th August 2019
11] UK GDP is estimated to have risen by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2022, Office of National Statistics, 30th September 2022
12] Ellis Alexander,.Idea Exchange, Subhajit Roy, Indian Express, 3rd October 2022
