Churn in the Global Order: West Asia on the Edge
Churn in the Global Order: West Asia on the Edge
Originally Published: Hindu College Gazette
The world is again experiencing a dynamic shakeup, the situation in West Asia, the BRICS Summit in Russia, the Sino-Indo Border Agreement, and a lot more. In this piece, we’ll piece together everything & unravel the consequences of these happenings & where things may head.
Introduction
As Russia hosts the BRICS Summit, 36 World Leaders are in Kazan, the US-led western objective of making a pariah out of Russia has not only failed but also has pushed Russia to be one of those countries who shall be shaping the incoming world order. António Guterres, the same UN Chief who once condemned “Russia’s Ukraine invasion” is now there in Kazan to attend the BRICS Summit. Meanwhile, a couple of days before the BRICS Summit, India & China reached an agreement on their bilateral border dispute which was triggered by the Galwan Clashes way back in 2020. And while the West continues to apply tremendous pressure on Iran, Israel decimated the Iranian proxies of Hezbollah & Hamas, and in these circumstances, Iran seems to have adopted a calibrated approach. The quest for survival in this anarchic international system has pushed things in a very intriguing direction.Where Is BRICS Headed:
BRICS: Anti-West or Non-West?
Global Swing States: Struggle for a New World Order
Stepping outside that debate, the direction of BRICS becomes crucial after the Kazan meetup. Days before the BRICS Summit in Kazan, the BRICS Business Forum unveiled ‘BRICS PAY’, a payment alternative to the SWIFT Payment System. And with objectives to further the usage of national currencies of member states being on the agenda in Kazan, the global financial order is already altering itself. Global Swing States such as India, Saudi Arabia & even Turkey to some extent, have to make the choice of how they tread. For India, the Sino-Indo Border Agreement ahead of the BRICS Summit was a much-needed relief, in addition, Xi Jinping & Narendra Modi’s meetup on the 23rd in Kazan is nothing but an attempt to build back the trust lost after the Galwan Clashes and consider the solutions by addressing the broader security problems at large. A gradual process, definitely, that could all but highlight the struggle in the emerging world order to establish itself.
Is Palestine Joining BRICS?
Palestine & African Union’s Membership in BRICS also stands as a matter on the agenda in Kazan for further expansion of the grouping. Palestine joining BRICS is a very tricky situation that India & Russia find themselves in during the Israel-Hamas Conflict. India has attempted to play a neutral game much like it did in the Russia-Ukraine situation amidst all the pressure while Russia has openly maintained a very pro-Israel stand when in December 2023, Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister even went on to say that Israel’s objectives in Gaza were similar to the Russian objectives in Ukraine of “denazification & demilitarization.” This follows from the fact that Israel under Netanhayu has refused not only to aid Ukraine militarily but also to impose sanctions on Russia. However, arguably India’s biggest test on Palestine comes in this conflict. In a council of countries, where South Africa takes Israel to the ICC (International Criminal Court) over Palestine, China asks both sides “especially Israel” to de-escalate & mediates a “unity agreement” between the Fatah & Hamas over a National Unity Government in the post-war Gaza, this compels India to articulate its policy carefully on Palestine’s accession to the bloc.Bi-Multipolarity: West Asia, Russia-Ukraine & Taiwan Situation
Jolts to Iran's Proxy Warfare
When Sanjaya Baru coined the concept of “Bi-multipolarity” in his article “The Geo-economics of Multipolarity,” he rightly attempted to highlight what was about to come and its impending causes and consequences. If the complexities of the relationships between the triumvirate of Israel, the USA and Russia don’t convolute things enough then West Asia is all about it. US continues to vehemently support Israel in West Asia while China supports Iran through those subtle references of de-escalation, the “especially Israel” wording does raise eyebrows in Tel Aviv.Israel’s sabotage of the Walkie-talkies & Pagers of Hezbollah, a member of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” has to a fine extent paralyzed Hezbollah. The killings of Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, Saleh al-Arouri, Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa have eliminated the top leadership of Hamas and terrorized it to such an extent that now it refuses to appoint a single leader for its organizational leadership and this has, to a phenomenal extent undone the work of the Revolutionary Guard of Iran. The militant clashes are still persistent as Hezbollah and Hamas have not evaporated, however, they’re weaker than ever pushing Iran to become belligerent in the region. Iran has been heavily invested in building these proxies. When one sees their investments fall apart, they're bound to confront the root cause that has caused the collapse of those investments.
West Asia is a Microcosm of the World
Netanyahu in telecasted addresses called on the people of Iran to stand up against their system of governance, making similar calls for the people of Lebanon to stand up against Hezbollah. Such calls for a regime change don’t go unnoticed, however, they do push things a little further to the edge. And regardless this proves A. F. Organski’s ‘Power Transition Theory’ to be true in which he wrote, “An even distribution of political, economic, and military capabilities between contending groups of states is likely to increase the probability of war; peace is preserved best when there is an imbalance of national capabilities between disadvantaged and advantaged nations; the aggressor will come from a small group of dissatisfied strong countries; and it is the weaker, rather than the stronger power that is most likely to be the aggressor.” The situation in the Middle East supports this notion with a nearly even distribution of capabilities.Saudi Arabia, under MBS, longs to have a thaw in relations with Israel. The conflict in Gaza has, however, reshaped this “deal of the century.” When Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi coined it he spoke of peace & stability in the region. The region is far from getting it. Saudi Arabia, from a historical perspective, has been at odds with Iran and Israel. A thaw with Iran due to Chinese Mediation, last year, did the repair work for the Saudis in that relationship and a potential one with Israel hangs in the balance.[2] Saudi Arabia, however, remains troubled by the Houthis, another Iranian Proxy in Yemen where Saudi Arabia militarily intervened in 2015. Although negotiations are happening with open hostilities having ceased, it remains a friction point for the Saudis.
For Iran, the thaw with Saudi Arabia was a major breakthrough, however, the increased Western rhetoric against it on its potential sale of ballistic missiles to Russia is a matter of concern.[3] Iran is also blamed for the assassination attempt on the life of the Former US President and one of the candidates in the Nov 2024 race, Donald Trump. With Kamala Harris under public pressure calling Iran the “greatest adversary” of the US,[4] the future seems bleak for Iran vis-a-vis its relationship with the West. In these circumstances for Iran, its relationship with China & Russia becomes paramount. Ironically & coincidentally, the US issued new rules yesterday to block China, Russia & Iran from accessing Bulk Data & these very three countries happen to be on the list of meetings for PM Modi at Kazan. Regardless, for India, its relationship with all these three countries is of paramount significance. An Iran, independent of foreign hands, is what is in India’s interest.
Turkey, on the other hand, continues to maintain its ‘strategic autonomy’ being a part of NATO such as the time when it purchased the Russian S-400 system for a tradeoff with the American F35 Program. Mr. Erdogan is the only NATO leader in Kazan for BRICS, where he would not only be present but also be discussing a gas hub initiative. And this supplements the fact that the Middle East is changing, the old order is waning & a new order is struggling to rise. West Asia has undergone geopolitical shifts before & so it is going under one again. From a Saudi Arabian Regional Hegemony since the Arab Spring to a kind of multipolarity in contemporary times, the region’s dynamics have shifted a lot. Especially the Abraham Accords along with Israel-Sudan & Israel-Morocco Normalization Treaty have established that the State of Israel is not only a reality that one must deal with but also a major player in the region which no longer is Anti-Arab. The Middle East's evolving landscape is such that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran & Qatar as well as Egypt to some extent stand as major players in the region. Qatar continues to be a part of the mediations on Israel Hamas conflict while at the same time it hosts the leaders of Hamas & funds the Palestinian Authority, Al Jazeera in its asymmetric gambit. Turkey continues to hold onto its ally cum proxy of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Indo-Pacific's Ukrainian Connection
In a similar vein, North Korea had reportedly stationed and sent soldiers to fight for Russia and as a response to this, a South Korean official assured of “countermeasures” potentially implying a munificent South Korean aid to Ukraine. On the other hand, Xi Jinping made a call for troops to prepare for a “war,” a declaration pretty similar to Xi’s “reunification” vow during the 75th anniversary of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) vis-a-vis Taiwan.[5]Conclusion
Although the proposition that India should be a mediator in the Israel-Hamas Conflict is persistently touted, it’s all but a naive and facile comprehension of the facets and dynamics of the Middle East without a proper understanding of the players invested in the conflict. However, it’s equally true that India is better positioned to reach a breakthrough in Khan Younis than Donetsk. Regardless, for India, the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) is imperative economically to India’s Link West Foreign Policy, nevertheless, mediating over the Israel-Hamas Conflict is a far cry from what India did vis-a-vis the Chagos Islands. While the proposal is very lucrative, it must be reached after considering different historical & political contexts. These proposals demand tremendous investment in time, energy and resources, which doesn’t necessarily assure successful results. The list of Hamas-Fatah agreements from 2006 to 2020 has all but proved to be efforts with futile outcomes.Antonio Gramsci is quoted to have said, “The Old World is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time for monsters.” Only a few countries such as Turkey, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, Indonesia & Vietnam among others from Africa have attempted to maintain their strategic autonomy in a world that’s rapidly aligning and re-aligning itself. While on one side the Western Order led by the US struggles to cope with an emerging reality, on the other side, a China-Iran-Russia-North Korea Axis struggles to build a New World Order of its choice. Then there are those aforementioned ‘Global Swing States’ who seek a very different Global Order.
The proclivity & disposition of countries for ‘Kinetic Action’ seem all the more likely in these changing times. This, however, is the first time in the world’s history that a power transition shall happen with weapons such as Nuclear Weapons adding a different layer altogether. Most players in this game are nuclear-armed and as a result, when the friction risks the question of survival of the state, the plausibility of going is all the more evident. It’s all but a hope that sensibilities are maintained by countries in this chaotic period to play the game in the reasonableness of kinetic force. The likelihood of using Kinetic force doesn’t diminish the prospect or at all make irrelevant the facets of non-kinetic force. For, Non-Kinetic Warfare is there to stay and be more than ever influential in deciding the Kinetic Outcomes. The discourse has shifted from the omnipresent phenomenon of soft balancing in the pre-Covid Era to a concoction of hard and soft balancing in the post-Covid Era.
The Rise of regional hegemonies is all but certain in an anarchic world much like Mearsheimer says in his work, ‘The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’, “a regional hegemon would intervene in other regions to seek a balance of power in that region to prevent the rise of a regional hegemon in those regions”. A similar reality can be found in today’s world, however, the increase in the use of Kinetic Force, highlights that the ‘Thucydides Trap’ has come into place in different regions, in West Asia, particularly. As the American supremacy starts to behold the valley as it rolls down the summit, it would certainly be using everything in its possession to reverse the flow, however, gravity and nature pull everything down, for nothing lasts forever. Like Putin said last year in BRICS, “the days of the dollar’s supremacy are limited”. Saudi Arabia not renewing the petro-dollar treaty & the increased use of other currencies made 2023 the year when 1/5th of global oil trade happened in non-dollar currencies, a domain of trade which the year before was purely dominated by the dollar.
Only time will tell how things prevail and unfold. For now, this is the formative phase of the ‘Great Power Game’ and for now, the world is in flux.
Citations:
1] PTI, “BRICS not Anti-West, only ‘Non-West’, says Russian President Putin”, The Economic Times, 21st October 2024 (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/brics-not-anti-west-only-non-west-says-russian-president-putin/articleshow/114357168.cms?from=mdr)
2) Vaudha Mukherjee, “Saudi Crown Prince fears assassination amid talks to normalise Israel ties”, Business Standard, 16th August 2024 (https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/saudi-crown-prince-fears-assassination-amid-talks-to-normalise-israel-ties-124081600902_1.html)
3) Laurence Norman, Michael R. Gordon, Alexander Ward, “U.S. Tells Allies Iran Has Sent Ballistic Missiles to Russia”, The Wall Street Journal, 6th September 2024
4) Al Jazeera Staff, “Kamala Harris says Iran is ‘greatest adversary’ of US”, Al Jazeera, 8th October 2024.
5) Xi Jinping calls to prepare for war as China launches live-fire exercise in Taiwan Strait, The Hindu, 22nd October 2024. (https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/xi-jinping-calls-to-prepare-for-war-as-china-launches-live-fire-exercise-in-taiwan-strait/article68781757.ece)
