The Asian Great Game of Influence: Part 1
The Asian Great Game of Influence: Part 1
With the global focus now shifting to Asia and the Indo-Pacific, the Sino-Indian battle for Influence will reach its climax in Asia in the coming years. 2022 is crucial in this game of chess. The Himalayan Kingdoms of Nepal and Bhutan are even more crucial as both share a border with India and China.
Introduction
The next step for achieving Chinese global ambition lies in South Asia. The Asian Great Game had already begun with the Chinese Invasion of Tibet, but now more resources are being put into this battle of influence by China and India. This article explores the various anxieties of these two countries which have started this battle and in whose favour has this battle gone so far.
Bhutan: A Case of Balance of Threat
Bhutan's Foreign Policy until the current generation was shaped by the idea of Balance of Threat. Balance of Threat means that a nation allies with states having the common aim to prevent a stronger power from dominating them and to protect themselves from a state having superior resources that pose a threat to National Independence. So, Bhutan allied with India to ensure its independence wasn't threatened by China. Although Bhutan signed the 'Treaty of Perpetual Peace and Friendship' with India in 1949, the Indo-Bhutanese partnership actually kicked off after the Chinese Invasion of Tibet. The Chinese narrative behind the invasion was based on their historic claim that they ruled Tibet until 1913.
Mao Zedong re-emphasised the need to invade Tibet in 1930. At that time he also stated that Ladakh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh were part of Tibet.[1] In 1959, China occupied eight Bhutanese enclaves in western Bhutan.[2] This made Bhutan turn to India over its anxieties about a possible Chinese Invasion. Even after India's defeat in the 1962 war, Bhutan still continued to be aligned with India for its security mechanism. Bhutan received investments from India for building infrastructure, schools and hospitals. In 1960, China again released a map which incorporated certain Bhutanese territories. As result, in 1961 over the fear of a potential Chinese Invasion, at Bhutan's request, India deployed a Military Training Team to train the Bhutanese Army.
India's 1962 defeat triggered Bhutan to start its own global outreach by joining the UN, signing a transit agreement with Bangladesh, and becoming a member of various multilateral organisations. Soon after, Bhutan expressed its right to refuse India's suggestions for its foreign policy, and Bhutan even voted differently on several occasions in the United Nations, but it remained sensitive to India's Interests. In 1984, Bhutan started its efforts to resolve its border disputes with China, but these efforts came to a stalemate in 1998 and subsequently an agreement to keep the status quo was signed in the same year. In 2003, the Bhutanese Army launched Operation All Clear and eliminated 160 insurgents who had created camps in Bhutan to continue the insurgency in Northeast India.
In 2007, India and Bhutan signed the 'Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation', putting an end to India's role of advising Bhutan on its foreign policy. With this new autonomy, Bhutan conducted its second diplomatic expansion. Bhutan even tried to establish relations with China. This prompted India to impose a subsidy cut on Bhutan's gas and kerosene import just before the 2013 Bhutanese elections and this served as a reason for the change in the government.
Bhutan's democratic transition and the population's access to the internet have somewhat changed the narrative. Bhutan's cultural link with Tibet has seemingly reduced a lot recently after it stayed silent on the Tibetian Issue and imposed restrictions on Tibetians gaining Bhutanese Citizenship despite historically they had socio-religious ties with Tibet.[3] The youth is looking for the utilization of the Chinese Economic Boom for bolstering Bhutan's economy. India's failure in delivering some projects on time and in the expected volume has contributed to Bhutan's rupee debt. It is in addition to Bhutan's Trade deficit with India.[4]
Bhutan however, opted not to join the Belts and Roads Initiative [BRI] of China. Bhutan instead joined the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation [BIMSTEC] as well as Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal [BBIN] Initiative. Although Bhutan couldn't approve BBIN's Motor Vehicle Agreement [MVA] because of opposition in its upper house over allowing seamless vehicle movement, Bhutan still signed a bilateral agreement with India allowing the same.
In 2021, Bhutan and China signed an MoU to resolve their border dispute, and Global Times, the Chinese mouthpiece was quick to call it a 'deadlock breaker'[5], however, if China continues to assert its olden demands that it would remove its claims over the Northern territories of Bhutan if Bhutan gives the western part then China should not get excited and expect another stalemate.
The Doklam Standoff in 2017, and Sumdorang Standoff in 1987 happened in the same region. The Nathu La and Cho La clashes of 1967 in some way fuelled the Amalmagation of Sikkim and it even triggered Bhutan to start its first diplomatic expansion. India's anxieties are mainly that a Chinese Invasion would try to first cut the Siliguri Corridor and separate the North East of India, also called 'Chicken's neck' from the rest of India. China on the other hand finds 'friendly' or 'neutral' Bhutan helpful to legitimise China's control over Tibet and even get an offensive position near the Siliguri Corridor.
Nepal: A Convolution of Influence
Nepal is having a very geopolitically important location. It has a border with the Siliguri Corridor as well as shares a border between India and China. For India, keeping Nepal under its influence is very important for ensuring the safety of its Siliguri Corridor while for China it is again about getting an offensive line. India and Nepal have their own border disputes. But the maintenance of dialogue and not allowing things to go ugly is India's best bet.
Unlike Bhutan or Sikkim, India and China made a different situation of Nepal. Unlike Bhutan which firmly remains aligned with India, Nepal has seen a swing. Under the Ranas, India and Nepal first signed 1950, 'India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship'. Within three months the Nepali Congress came into the picture, and the Ranas were gone. Nehru's 'Blunder' of rejecting the offer of making Nepal a province of India made India invest a lot into Nepal to keep it on India's side.[6] The Nepalese Citizenship Act made it easier for Indians to get citizenship, but it got criticism until in 1962 several restrictions were imposed on getting citizenship. On the other hand, Nepal in 1956, supported the change of the UN Permanent Seat of the Republic of China to the People's Republic of China.
Nepal was even a few of the first nations to recognise Tibet as a part of China, and Nepal even denounced India's annexation of Sikkim. In 1989, Indo-Nepalese relations took an ugly turn with both sides taking a hardline over the renewal of the trade and transit treaty where India wanted a single treaty having both while Nepal wanted otherwise. This led to the expiration of both the treaties and led to a virtual economic blockade of Nepal by India until April 1990. However, India's relations kept on growing with Nepal until the arrival of the Maoists.
After the Maoists took over in Nepal, Nepal seemingly moved closer to China with Prachanda, the then Prime Minister even announcing that the 1950 India-Nepal Treaty would be scrapped though it wasn't scrapped.[8] Nepal even joined China's BRI project, but no progress has happened in Nepal with the same as of now. Lately, Prime Minister Modi's visit to Nepal was perhaps what many referred to as 'Buddhist Diplomacy' to bring India closer to Nepal. Historically since Independence till the date, India has been providing Nepal with various credit lines for fuel, grains and other essentials.
Nepal has a potential for Hydroelectricity and India can fund such projects and that's where India has its own opportunity. It has been the case that when Nepali Congress came to power Nepal shifted towards India and when the Prachanda-led left came to power, Nepal shifted to China. As Sher Bahadur Debua was appointed the Prime Minister of Nepal, strategists studied whether he moved towards India and so he did. With Nepal's elections scheduled in November 2022, a battle for Influence becomes between China and India on Nepal becomes more evident.
Conclusion
As of now, the Himalayan Ball is in India's Court. The November 2022 Nepalese elections make it more interesting as India would be watching how the situation goes. India has to continue to invest in Nepal to ensure its interests are safeguarded. The idea that Nepal would follow Sri Lanka as of now looks far-fetched, but can become a reality and thus India must work in this direction.
Endnotes:
- Ahsan and Chakma, “Bhutan’s Foreign Policy: Cautious Self-Assertion?”
- P Stobdan, “Resituating Menser and Darchen-Labrang in the Boundary Negotiations with China,” IDSA Policy Brief, February 2018, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, https://idsa.in/policybrief/resituating-menser-darchen-labrang-in-boundary-negotiations-china-pstobdan-160218
- See: Kharat and Bhutia, “Changing Dynamics of India-Bhutan Relations”; Mathou, “Bhutan-China Relations: Towards a new Step in Himalayan Politics.”
- Ministry of External Affairs, “India-Bhutan Trade Relations.”
- Cao Siqi, Liu Xin, and Bai Yunyi, “ MoU on China-Bhutan boundary talks ‘breaks deadlock caused by India, paves way for diplomatic ties.” Global Times, October 15, 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1236425.shtml
- The Presidential Years 2012-2017, by Pranab Mukherjee, pg 136.
- "Nepal's Economy Is Gasping as India, a Huge Neighbor, Squeezes It Hard". The New York Times. 11 April 1989.
- "India willing to review 1950 treaty". Archived from the original on 17 February 2019. Retrieved 15 May 2008.
